economic growth rebounded slightly in the third quarter, and
2019-11-29 16:22 from：CAPSTONE author：Jack
Capstone Online CFD Trading Report: U.S. economic growth picked up slightly in the third quarter, rather than slowing as shown by preliminary data; and there are signs that the decline in corporate investment may be coming to an end.
The data released on Wednesday showed a modest economic growth. In addition, the number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits fell last week, after the data had been at a five-month high for two consecutive weeks. A strong labor market should continue to support consumer spending, which currently appears to be slowing.
Overall, the data released on Wednesday, along with other recent data, paints a more optimistic picture of the US economy. The US economy is currently in its record 11th year of expansion, but it has had to surpass the slowdown in the US-China trade war initiated by President Trump and the weakening effects of last year ’s tax cuts by Republicans. Economists have also raised their expectations for economic growth in the current fourth quarter.
The rise in data seems to confirm the optimistic tone laid down by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell earlier this week, saying on Monday that "in the long-term expansion process, I think the glass is now more than half full A lot. "
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in October this year, and hinted that the easing cycle that began in July will be temporarily suspended, when the Federal Reserve reduced borrowing costs for the first time since 2008.
The Federal Reserve said in a Beige Book on Wednesday that the US economy expanded moderately from October to mid-November.
JPMorgan Chase economist Michael Feroli said, "It looks like economic growth in the fourth quarter will be even higher.
In the third quarter final GDP report, the US Department of Commerce stated that the annual rate of GDP in the third quarter was revised up by 2.1% year-on-year, and the previous value was increased by 1.9%. GDP in the second quarter increased by 2.0% year-on-year.
Economists interviewed by Reuters had previously predicted that the final value of the third quarter GDP of the United States would remain unchanged at 1.9%.
The revision to the third quarter GDP data reflects that the inventory accumulation is larger than originally expected. Inventories increased by $ 79.8 billion, higher than the initial increase of $ 69 billion reported last month. Economists point out that the increase in inventories is due to the ups and downs of the US-China trade relationship, and trade tensions have actually promoted inventory growth rather than dragged on inventory.
Even without considering the impact of increased inventory, the economic situation in the third quarter is still good.
In terms of income, gross domestic revenue (GDI) increased by 2.4% year-on-year in the third quarter and increased by 0.9% in the second quarter. Despite the decline in earnings, growth in revenue is still accelerating.
GDI was revised downward by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year in the second quarter, and the increase in salary and sales in the second quarter was also significantly revised down from US $ 61.2 billion to US $ 46.7 billion.
After deducting inventory valuations and adjusted for capital consumption, the third-quarter earnings of companies in the S & P 500 index fell by $ 11.3 billion, or 0.6%, dragged down by legal settlements with Facebook and Google. Earnings for the second quarter increased by 3.3%.
The average GDP and GDI, which is called the gross domestic output, is a better indicator of economic activity. The indicator grew 2.3% in the third quarter, which was faster than the 1.4% increase in the second quarter.
The Atlanta Fed raised its fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast from 0.4% to 1.7%. Despite optimistic growth data, inflation is still stagnant, which may worry some Fed officials.
The inflation indicator that the Federal Reserve is more concerned about, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, rose by 1.6% in October from the same period last year. The index rose 1.7% in September and has been below the Fed's 2% target this year.
As the dollar strengthened against a basket of currencies, the price of U.S. Treasuries fell. Wall Street stocks rose, with major indexes hitting record highs.
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